CLARITY Act Odds Sink as Senate Delay Threatens 2026 Crypto Vote
Polymarket traders now price the CLARITY Act at a 21% chance of becoming law by Dec. 31, with more than $5.5 million in trading volume as of Aug. 9. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) would divide oversight of digital assets between the SEC and CFTC. Senate negotiators merged Banking and Agriculture committee versions into a 616-page text covering ethics, enforcement, custody, and stablecoin provisions.
Galaxy Research trimmed its passage estimate from 50% to 30% on July 24, pointing to unresolved disputes. Democratic lawmakers object to ethics language covering elected officials and digital-asset businesses, arguing it would leave President Trump’s crypto interests largely untouched. Committee staff identified five major loopholes spanning securities law, illicit finance, financial stability, consumer protections, and ethics.
Negotiators entered August with three open items: ethics enforcement, illicit finance provisions, and stablecoin yield. Republicans hold 53 seats, and Galaxy expects at least two to vote against, leaving supporters near 50 dependable votes—short of the 60 required to break a filibuster.
The Senate filed a cloture motion on Aug. 8, but missed a pre-recess vote. Senators return Sept. 14, placing the first cloture vote on Sept. 15. The bill must clear Congress and receive a presidential signature before Dec. 31, leaving less than five months.